Commodores and Bulldogs do battle is SEC Tournament semifinals

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

03/13/2010 - Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Mississippi State Bulldogs and the 20th- ranked Vanderbilt Commodores are set to collide in the semifinal round of the 2010 SEC Tournament.

Tomorrow, the winner of this contest will take on either Kentucky or Tennessee for the championship.

The Commodores struggled early against Georgia in yesterday's quarterfinal game, but the team proved superior in the second half and knocked off the Bulldogs by a 78-66 final. Vanderbilt, the second seed from the East Division, earned its lone SEC Tournament title way back in 1951, by far the longest drought of any of the teams that have won the crown. The Commodores are 30-47 in this event, but this year's team is one of the best in recent memory. Vandy is 24-7 overall and went 12-4 in conference during the regular season.

Mississippi State, the top seed from the West Conference, knocked off Florida yesterday by a 75-69 final in the quarterfinal round. Considering the fact that the club closed out the regular season with back-to-back losses, fans of the Bulldogs were happy to see the solid performance against the Gators. MSU, which is 22-10 overall, is the defending champion of this event, as it defeated Tennessee in a 64-61 final in the 2009 title game, and the program has three SEC crowns to its credit. Still, the 26-46 record at this event is poor.

Vanderbilt won its only regular-season meeting with Mississippi State, 75-72, and the Commodores own a 72-43 advantage in the all-time series.

Yesterday, Vanderbilt earned a 43-32 rebounding advantage over Georgia and limited the Bulldogs to 3-of-16 shooting from three-point range, two obvious keys to victory. The Commodores shot an impressive 9-of-18 from three-point range and got solid contributions from several individuals. John Jenkins, a freshman guard, was sensational for Vanderbilt, as he poured in a career-high 25 points on the strength of a 5-of-8 effort from three-point range. Jenkins took the game over in the second stanza, scoring 22 of his points over the final 20 minutes. Jermaine Beal tallied 16 points and six assists, while A.J. Ogilvy registered 10 points. Andre Walker only scored six points, but he did grab 10 rebounds for Vandy. The Commodores are scoring 78.1 ppg while allowing 69.2 ppg to foes. Beal leads the well-balanced club with 14.8 ppg, and Ogilvy checks in with 13.8 ppg and 6.3 rpg. Jeffery Taylor (13.5 ppg) and Jenkins (11.0 ppg) are both talented scorers.

Barry Stewart scored 17 points to lead the Bulldogs to the six-point victory over Florida in the quarterfinal round. Jarvis Varnado added 15 points for Mississippi State, while Ravern Johnson tallied 12 points. Both Dee Bost and Kodi Augustus posted 10 points apiece for the Bulldogs, and the balanced scoring was key to the victory. Mississippi State opened the game with a 10-0 run and led 39-28 at intermission. The squad led by as many 19 points in the second half, but Florida ripped off 14 unanswered points and made the game much closer than it should have been. MSU tied an SEC Tournament record by hitting 10 three-pointers in the contest, as the club finished 10-of-20 from behind the arc. While the Bulldogs suffered a 32-20 rebounding disadvantage in the tilt, they were able to knock down 57.1 percent of their field goal attempts on the night. Overall this season, MSU is scoring 72.8 ppg while limiting opponents to 64.5 ppg. Both Johnson and Varnado entered this tournament averaging 13.5 ppg, but Varnado has gotten most of the attention, especially considering the fact that he recently became the NCAA's all-time leader in blocked shots.

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.